Just like you, we’ve been wondering if the Tokyo Olympics will happen this year. Our visit to Japan in December 2019-January 2020 happened just before the world was flipped on its head. We flew on a full airplane to walk around with large crowds while stopping to eat in any restaurant we wanted.
One of the reasons we decided to visit at the time is that we thought we were getting there just before crowds started to really pick up before the Tokyo Olympics. We saw Tokyo 2020 merchandise and countdown clocks all across the city. You could also feel an underlying buzz that only a major event like the Olympics can create.
Nobody had a clue that we would be here in 2021 asking if the Tokyo 2020 Olympics would be happening or not! We feel terrible for the amazing athletes that have to wait to show us what they are capable of but there is a glimmer of hope. It is only a glimmer, unfortunately, because there are a lot of factors to consider.
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Tokyo Olympics: The Case Against 2021
We are optimists at heart so we want the Tokyo Olympics to finally happen this year. On the other hand, there is a small part of us that is being a bit realistic with everything that is happening in the world. Let’s start with some of the obstacles standing in between us and watching our athletes compete for gold:
The obvious reason...
It’s been the dominant news story and topic of conversation for over a year now: Covid. It is also the reason why the Tokyo Olympics had to be postponed in the first place. This microscopic nuisance is putting a big question mark on going forward in 2021 or even at all.
Japan currently (February 2021) has a ban on almost all foreign visitors entering the country. The government also has Tokyo itself in a State of Emergency as the number of Covid cases are on the rise again. The Tokyo Olympics Committee feels confident that the games can go on but these restrictions make it difficult.
If no foreign visitors are allowed, can athletes get in? Will Japanese citizens be able to travel within the country to see the games? Will spectators be allowed to watch the games in person at all? These are all questions that still do not have a firm answer.
Lessons From Other Events
The Tokyo Olympics are obviously not the only major sporting events that have been cancelled or postponed. Some sports have either continued or changed their schedule with mixed results. Not everything is at the same scale as the Olympics but there have been some recent examples that show what can happen.
Game. Set. Match.
Recently, the tennis federation moved forward with the Australian Open. The safety measures were increased with players only allowed entry via chartered flights. Once they arrive, they are immediately sent to Quarantine Hotels for a mandatory 2-week period before the tournament.
These measures sound great but there are cracks in the defences. Several players and coaching staff are now testing positive for Covid even with the precautions. It does not seem like it has spread outside of the lockdown zone so the community-at-large is safe. Unfortunately, this puts a dark cloud over the Tokyo Olympics even with heightened safety measures.
Even With a Vaccine...
There is a light at the end of the tunnel with multiple vaccines being produced and distributed around the world. For the Tokyo Olympics, it is now a race against time to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible. There have been some global delivery issues but Japan is one of the more prepared nations.
Even if everyone gets a vaccine tomorrow there are still a lot of unknowns before the Games can go forward. How effective is the vaccine in the real world? How will people prove they are vaccinated before/after entering Japan? Will the country open immediately or be cautious and wait to open their borders?
Tokyo Olympics: The Case for the Games in 2021
There are a lot of “What If’s” surrounding the Tokyo Olympics but there are reasons to be hopeful. Faster vaccine production means more people are becoming immune. We also live in a technological age that can help solve a lot of the problems too. Let’s look at the reasons why the Tokyo Olympics will happen in 2021.
Tokyo Olympics and the Vaccine
Vaccine rollout is ramping up by the day. More and more countries are outlining their plans to give it to as many citizens as possible. Yes, there have been some hiccups around the world but overall the message is positive. Even though Japan has its own obstacles there is still a solid strategy in place.
Vaccinated Visitors
Even if Japan lags behind on vaccinating its own citizens, outside spectators could still be allowed to spectate. There may be some sort of verification needed like Vaccine Passports or medical records. Either way, if you’re vaccinated and comfortable travelling you could be allowed into Japan for the Tokyo Olympics.
Low Case Counts
Another reason to be hopeful for the Tokyo Olympics is the number of Covid cases in Japan. The country has been able to keep the case count relatively low in relation to the population size and density. Even with a tightly-packed city like Tokyo the spread has been contained compared to other cities around the world.
If Japan can increase vaccinations while keeping cases on the downswing they will be in a great position. This means it’s looking good for the Tokyo Olympics to open on July 23!
Tech to the Rescue
It is a lot easier for the Tokyo Olympics to proceed today than even 30 years ago. There are so many options available to be a part of the Games without even leaving the comfort of your home. With high speed internet, dozens of cameras, VR options, and more it’s almost better than being there in person.
In Person vs. Virtual Audience
The highest attendance at any Olympics was at the Atlanta ’96 Games where 8.4 million tickets were sold. Compare that to the largest Olympics TV audience of 4.7 billion for the ’08 Beijing Games and it’s easy to see how most people watch the events anyway. As long as the Tokyo Olympics can come up with a plan to get the athletes in safely then the games can go on. We’ll just have to watch on our screens and cheer from afar.
So, What's the Verdict?
Tokyo Olympics 2020/21
Even with concern of the Tokyo Olympics happening this year we really believe they will happen. Japan will start to open up as more people become immune from Covid thanks to vaccines. People will also be more comfortable with travelling by the time the Games come around. They may not be at the same scale as past Olympics but they will still be an experience.
In a worst-case scenario where spectators aren’t allowed we will still get to see the Tokyo Olympics in some form. Whether that be on your TV, tablet, phone, or VR headset you will still be able to watch the world’s best athletes compete together. A lot of people are determined to make these Games a reality and we have faith they will pull through!
What Do You Think?
Do you think the Tokyo Olympics will happen this year? Or do you think it’s too soon and they will be postponed or even cancelled? Let us and others know in the comments below. Make sure to pick up a JR Pass and a SUICA Card if you are lucky enough to see the Olympics in person.
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